CARBOTURA
01 / 09
CORNERSTONE SET · 03 OF 03

Management Stress-Test
& Underwriting Analysis

The 400 TPD Advanced Circular Manufacturing (ACM) baseline model, tested with every subsidy switched off, capacity halved, and output pricing cut in half — then measured against published project-finance criteria.

TAX & ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS
$0
§48, §45Q, §45V and §45X monetization entirely disabled.
OPERATING CAPACITY
50%
Modelled at half nameplate throughput for the full term.
OUTPUT PRICING
−50%
Circular Materials priced at half modelled baselines.
CASH-FLOW BREAKEVEN
13%
Of plant capacity, under all three haircuts at once.

Prepared by Carbotura Inc. management. This is not an independent third-party review, audit, appraisal or credit rating. Read the disclosure on the next slide before any figure here.

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CARBOTURA
02 / 09
READ FIRST · MANDATORY DISCLOSURE

No rating agency has rated this.

Everything that follows is management's own analysis of management's own model. It is presented in full because the assumptions are checkable — not because anyone external has checked them.

WHAT THIS IS NOT
  • Not a credit rating. No NRSRO — including S&P Global Ratings, Moody's or Fitch — has been engaged by, has reviewed any materials of, or has expressed any opinion on Carbotura, any subsidiary or SPV, or this offering.
  • Not independent. No third party prepared, audited, verified or opined on this analysis.
  • Not a recommendation. Nothing here is investment advice or an offer. Any offer is made solely by the Private Placement Memorandum, whose risk factors control over this deck.
WHAT THE RATING LANGUAGE MEANS

References to rating categories are management's illustrative comparison of modelled cash flows against publicly published rating-agency methodologies. They are not ratings and do not indicate that any rating would be assigned. Agencies apply qualitative, institutional and governance criteria well beyond the modelled metrics shown here, and would be expected to reach different conclusions.

Carbotura is pre-operational. No facility has reached commercial operation and no revenue has been recognised under the assumptions modelled. Actual results will differ, and may differ materially.

Forward-looking statements here are not eligible for the safe harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which is unavailable to offerings by non-reporting issuers. Confidential; furnished solely for accredited investors under Rule 501(a) of Regulation D.

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CARBOTURA
03 / 09
01 · METHOD

Underwrite it as if nothing goes right.

Industrial circularity models are usually flagged for three things: dependence on policy subsidies, unproven commodity pricing, and complex counterparties. Rather than argue those away, the model was re-run with each one assumed to fail.

SUBSIDY RISK
Assume none of it arrives

Every tax and environmental monetization — §48 ITC, §45Q, §45V, §45X — is switched off entirely. The model earns from industrial processing fees and Circular Materials sales alone.

COMMODITY RISK
Assume prices halve

Selling prices for Circular Materials — synthetic graphite, graphene compounds and recovered minerals — are discounted 50% against modelled baselines, absorbing a commodity crash.

OPERATIONAL RISK
Assume half the plant

The facility runs at a 50% capacity factor for the full term, testing the balance sheet against sustained slowdowns or feedstock interruption.

All three haircuts are applied simultaneously, not as alternative scenarios. The figures on the following slides are what survives that.

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CARBOTURA
04 / 09
02 · STRUCTURAL ARCHITECTURE

Manufactured, not constructed.

Traditional industrial infrastructure carries capital overruns, multi-year delays and execution risk tied to Engineer-Procure-Construct contracting. Carbotura does not operate under an EPC model, and the difference is structural rather than contractual.

DESIGN FOR MANUFACTURABILITY (DFM)
Modules are products, replicated

Standardised ISO high-cube footprints and factory-built ACM modules remove custom on-site construction variables. Capacity comes from replication rather than bespoke build, which compresses deployment timelines and makes capital expenditure predictable to a 2.5% manufacturing tolerance.

EQUITY-TO-DEBT CAPITAL STACK
The same equity funds site after site

Initial deployment is seeded by parent equity, followed by long-term project debt takeouts that recycle that equity back out of the asset. This avoids permanent parent dilution and funds subsequent sites from the same capital base rather than from successive equity rounds.

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CARBOTURA
05 / 09
03 · REVENUE CERTAINTY

The fee is the credit story.

Debt service is carried by the Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee), not by commodity sales. This analysis is anchored on the executed York County, Pennsylvania Circular Supply Agreement (CSA).

CONTRACTED — YORK COUNTY, PA
$75/ton
Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee)
Specific to the executed York County agreement and not representative of pricing under any other CSA. The current negotiating range is $100–$150/ton. This analysis deliberately models the lower contracted rate.
ESCALATION
2.5%/yr
Compounding from COD
Fixed annual escalation from the Commercial Operation Date anniversary, protecting top-line revenue against inflation across the term.
TERM
30-year
Take-or-pay, non-cancellable
Volume is guaranteed by a Minimum Annual Feedstock Volume obligation, establishing a fixed-income profile independent of commodity markets.

Counterparty credit quality is modelled on an investment-grade public municipal entity. The Circular Royalty™ paid back to the Feedstock Provider is Carbotura's cost of goods for the raw material — a separate transaction, never netted against the fee.

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CARBOTURA
06 / 09
04 · DOWNSIDE RESILIENCE

Breakeven at 13% of the plant.

Because the contracted fee covers fixed debt service and baseline operations at minimal throughput, cash-flow breakeven arrives long before the facility is busy — with all three haircuts applied at once.

MARGIN OF SAFETY
13%
Cash-flow breakeven utilisation

Operating the stressed model at a 50% capacity factor leaves roughly four times the throughput required to break even. That gap is the cushion absorbing feedstock interruption, slower ramp, and extended lower-capacity windows.

WHY IT HOLDS
  • Debt service is met from contracted intake revenue, not from Circular Materials sales.
  • Materials revenue becomes upside rather than a credit dependency — a commodity crash reduces return, not solvency.
  • Take-or-pay volume means revenue does not fall with delivered tonnage.
  • Fixed G&A and debt service still require discipline through prolonged low-capacity windows; the cushion is wide, not infinite.
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CARBOTURA
07 / 09
05 · ILLUSTRATIVE CREDIT COMPARISON

Measured against published criteria.

Modelled SPV cash flows were compared against the project-finance methodologies the major agencies publish. The comparison is management's own; no agency performed it.

WHAT SUPPORTS THE COMPARISON
  • Availability-payment analogy. Debt service backed by a long-term, non-cancellable take-or-pay contract with a public entity behaves like a municipal availability payment or utility capacity charge.
  • Coverage under stress. With breakeven at 13% capacity, modelled debt-service coverage stays strong through severe operational interruption.
  • Commodity insulation. Relying on the contracted fee for debt service makes materials pricing an equity-side variable rather than a credit-supportive one.
WHAT LIMITS IT
  • Technology validation. ACM elemental dissociation carries operational validation risk against legacy utility assets with decades of performance history.
  • Structural subordination. Standard project-level subordination applies at the SPV.
  • Pre-operational status. No operating history, no facility at commercial operation, no revenue recognised. Agencies weight this heavily and it is not captured by the modelled metrics.
  • Nobody has rated it. An agency would apply qualitative and governance criteria this comparison does not attempt.
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CARBOTURA
08 / 09
06 · COUNTERPARTY ALIGNMENT

Why a public authority signs for thirty years.

The durability of the contract is itself a credit input. Under conventional disposal arrangements a municipality pays a tipping fee and receives nothing back. Under the CSA the same material transfers to Carbotura and the community is paid a Circular Royalty™ on it.

THE PROBLEM IT SOLVES

Local governments face diversion mandates and rising disposal costs simultaneously. The CSA converts a recurring cost line into a revenue line without requiring the authority to fund or operate anything.

WHY IT STICKS

A counterparty being paid has materially different renewal behaviour from one being billed. Alignment, not switching costs, is what makes a thirty-year term signable and durable.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR CREDIT

Contract durability underwrites the revenue floor. The material transfers under the CSA and Carbotura pays a royalty on it — there is no purchase price and no procurement line for feedstock.

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CARBOTURA
09 / 09
07 · WHERE THIS LEAVES IT

Sound under its own assumptions — and they are all stated.

Stripped of policy subsidies, run at half capacity with output priced at half, and anchored on an executed thirty-year take-or-pay agreement, the 400 TPD ACM model holds. What makes that worth reading is that every assumption behind it is on these slides.

WHAT REMAINS TO BE PROVEN BY OTHERS
  • Independent Engineer review, scheduled post-construction-start.
  • Any actual rating, which would require engaging an NRSRO.
  • Operating performance against the modelled tolerance.

None of those have happened. This deck does not stand in for them.

CONTINUE

Full 30-year schedules, the underlying model outputs and the supporting diligence set are available in the data room to verified accredited investors under NDA.

Management-prepared. Not an independent review, audit or credit rating. No NRSRO has rated Carbotura or this offering. Not an offer; any offer is made solely by the Private Placement Memorandum, whose risk factors control.

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